Black-box periodontal risk calculator predicts alveolar bone loss and tooth loss 15 year later in a select group of nontransient men

Subjects

Five hundred twenty three of the 1231 men (in their 30s to 70s at baseline) who participated in the Veterans Administration Dental Longitudinal Study started in 1968 in the Boston area and had visits and radiographs at baseline, 3-year, 9-year, and 15-year follow-ups.

Diagnostic Test

Periodontal risk calculator (Dental Medicine International Inc, [DMI] Philadelphia, Pa) ordinal category (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Main Outcome Measure

Periodontal disease severity (mean percentage of alveolar bone loss per person at periodontal probing sites with more than 2% alveolar bone loss).

Main Results

The periodontal risk calculator category was significantly associated with disease severity at 3, 9, and 15 years of follow-up. At 15 years, the mean was from 3.3% (95% CI estimated from graph: 2.9%–3.4%) for category 2 to 6.9% (95% CI estimated: 6.4%–7.5%) for category 5.

The periodontal risk calculator category was significantly associated with periodontal disease extent (percent of periodontal disease extent (percent of periodontal probing sites with more than 2% alveolar bone loss) at 3, 9, and 15 years of follow-up. At 15 years, the mean was from 52% (95% CI: 46%–58%) for category 2 to 64% (95% CI: 58%–70%) for category 5.

The periodontal risk calculator category was significantly associated with tooth loss (percent of teeth lost) at 3, 9, and 15 years of follow-up. At 15 years, the means was from 4% (95% CI estimated from graph: 4%–6%) for category 2 to 24% (95% CI: 21%–26%) for category 5; compared with category 2, relative risk (RR) was 3.2 (95% CI: 2.2–4.8) for category 3, 4.5 (95% CI: 3.0–6.6) for category 4, and 10.6 (95% CI: 7.2–15.6) for category 5.